WOYM: Snowflake, Goldman, Apple, Dell, Semiconductor podcast

Ram Ahluwalia & Justin Guilder

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Episode Description

Goldman drops Apple from Conviction buy list Snowflake / Altimeter Dell Growing Wealth with Diversification Mr. Market Thoughts on Biotech Semiconductor interview pod Dan Nysedt

Episode Transcript

WOYM Snowflake,Goldman Apple, Dell, Semiconductor podcast (360p).mp4


Speaker 1 [00:00:02] Hey, Justin. Happybirthday.


Speaker 2 [00:00:04] Okay. Thank you. Rob,how are you?


Speaker 1 [00:00:07] Good man. I wasn'tsure we were going to pull this off today. I was prepared to go solo, but gladyou can join in. I know you're going to spend time with your family later.We're rocking a new. This is your birthday hat of choice today?


Speaker 2 [00:00:18] Yeah, I was. Well, Imight get a new hat this weekend for my birthday, but, I.


Speaker 1 [00:00:23] Might draw on this,what t get the guy who has everything, including a lot of hats.


Speaker 2 [00:00:29] So, yeah, actually, mywife stayed out of the park, for for me. I'm a Florida gator, and this morning,she got me. I unveiled something for my, home gym in my home that we'rerenovating, which is a, signed, autographed, framed Tim Tebow jersey.


Speaker 1 [00:00:51] Oh, that's. Oh, wow.


Speaker 2 [00:00:53] I'm a big I'm a bigfan.


Speaker 1 [00:00:55] Are you okay? Well,that's a I don't.


Speaker 2 [00:00:57] Think it's toocontroversial to say that I believe he's the greatest college football playerof all time.


Speaker 1 [00:01:02] Well, I can't reallyspar with you on that topic, so I'm just going to concede and roll with it.Yeah.


Speaker 2 [00:01:11] There have been othergreat ones, but, I put them up there.


Speaker 1 [00:01:15] I think I would say,yeah, I can go in. I know a bit about basketball, but that's what it's. Yeah.


Speaker 2 [00:01:22] No, it's all good.It's all good. Anyway, I was super excited for that. And it was a greatpresent. And so far it's been a great birthday.


Speaker 1 [00:01:30] So feeling good.Fantastic postgame. We got a lot to get through today.


Speaker 2 [00:01:36] So we do we doinstallment Goldman's following your your lead final.


Speaker 1 [00:01:43] Let me tell you I gotI bet a few say friendly people on Twitter though. And I love it how Goldmanhas thousands of Twitter setting macro people and they get it wrong. We said noreports in March. Finally, the chief economist said no. No rate cuts in Marchand hold out for more time in the second week said Apple does not make anysense, especially on a conviction buy. We wrote a side by side. I said, look,here's what I like and don't like, but some names they have that I actually dolike. It's not like I get something against I do something in Scotland,actually, but I try to be clear. So the but Apple they took out blocked convictionby finally though about time better late than never. you know I mentionedbefore it was a podcast with Howard. I was like, look, do you want tooutperform the S&P if you own rename the S&P and just not Apple and notyou, you just fine. And that has proven out. So, you know Apple shut down theirI car division or not which car to compete with. that otherwise would havecompeted with Tesla. So Steve Jobs I mean, man, you know, you got to imaginethis guy has taken like the Apple Vision Pro, which is a wonderful $3,500 neckbrace. Like if you have an issue, you can walk around with that thing at leastprobably put it like in a fish tank. You heard that story because the bubblesthat flow out, that escape the, the, but right now, you know the story. Okay. Sothe first time they had the, the iPhone product concept, Steve Jobs looked atit and he's got an incredible eye for design discernment. He walks over to thefish tank and drops it in and looks at the bubbles coming in and says, youknow, you can do better. You can make the form factor tighter. This air gaps inthis device, you have to get the components to fit together perfectly. Right.That's amazing. I think, you know, God bless Steve Jobs. What a hero.Incredible individual. I'm pretty sure right now he's like, what the hell isgoing on with Apple? I love my Apple products. But seriously, the car now theVision Pro. Yeah, right. Go ahead. Better late than never, guys, but they'regonna try harder next time.


Speaker 2 [00:04:11] It's tough. I don't knowif it's tough if you're Apple, but it's hard to innovate as the market leader.I think I mean, there's just a lot of. Inertia around your existing structureand your existing products. And so like I think you said this or the are theyinnovating against themselves, you know, are they trying to put their ownproducts out of business?


Speaker 1 [00:04:43] It's it's just nogrowth happened in this issue that they've got for the customer. They've beenincredibly successful and successful that there's not much room to grow thestuff. You know, the thing that I put in the likes of the big tech companiescan do is buy and bend. But for the fact that the bank holding company thatprohibits them, they can get into financial services. I'd be long Apple. I'd bevery excited about Apple. You know I'm if to go right.


Speaker 2 [00:05:07] Now you're going backto Goldman because Apple paired with Goldman for the Apple Card.


Speaker 1 [00:05:12] And they exited thatprogram as well. So you know these big tech.


Speaker 2 [00:05:15] Companies that exitedGoldman exited because Apple took all the economics. oh. The inside story onthat is basically Apple reverse auction sort of I don't know all theintricacies of it, but I know that there were several banks competing for theApple Card, and I know that as a result, Apple got a had they had purchasingpower, right. Like they said, look, you want a card? Well, we have all theusers. So that Apple wall it's pretty powerful. And so they controlled theeconomics in that deal with Goldman. And it just didn't make sense for Goldman.Right. And then it paired with Goldman's kind of consumer approach with wasthat Albert. Is that what they called it.


Speaker 1 [00:06:02] I think that's right.Yeah.


Speaker 2 [00:06:03] Yeah. And like wasjust like one of the disaster and like the whole green sky Albert Apple Cardall of that like lower end consumer product just didn't work. Consumer bankingyou.


Speaker 1 [00:06:15] Have to Goldman this Imean like the leading co-brand issuers as you know or like chase comparison andMileageplus Citibank who powers American Airlines American Express and powersDelta and they all have a bunch of different Co-brand cards. And Goldman triedto get in the game. My first job, in consulting was this whole category. Soit's been 1 or 2 things done some interesting work around there. But it'scompetitive. It's efficient. There's, you know, it's it's really hard todifferentiate. And Goldman had the winning curves. If you if you compete to winthat auction you're winning by getting up the most economics and of course areshutting it down. So yeah yeah Goldman got issues. Apple got issues. Delta graywe're excited about that went up 27% in like the last 24 hours. That was one ofour conviction buys, actually. So we had a sort of top five position for us.Really excited. Dell had A4P of 13.6 just a few days ago to put that inperspective. So we're always scanning the market and trying to find value. Andyou know Mr.. Markets bid up mach seven. There's still news there to make youknow we're long meta. We love Google at this price for sure. but within thatsemiconductor space that was actually part of that. So distribution partnerNvidia. So their captions show revenue and they play an important role. They'rebenefiting from the growth of data centers. You got to call it Dell. And you'realso calling Supermicro on some other player. So that was that was great. Welike that. I had a semiconductor podcast this morning with Dan Neistat. He livesin Taiwan. Excuse me. He's a, one more journalist, who turned into a financialanalyst focused on semiconductors, you know, live in mainland China. Verythoughtful individual. Also had interesting perspectives on China, Taiwan,geopolitics. So we did that live this morning. We'll have a produced, editedversion coming up in a few days. That's definitely worth checking out. You canfollow it on YouTube as well. But I'm so excited.


Speaker 2 [00:08:23] To listen to that.


Speaker 1 [00:08:25] It's going to bereally interesting. Yeah. He was very, very it's great. What's great about thisthat we're learning from minds in the category, taking the key trends andfinding, okay, what's the best way to express a view that, you know, have a notjust a trend conversation, but also okay, how do you think about say Broadcomversus Marvel. You know and you're talking to someone that's kind of prettyinformed perspective on this topic or like photonics and data centers. But sothat's good. What else?


Speaker 2 [00:08:59] Yeah. So, I wasinterested in, the things that are going on at snowflake. I know you werelooking at that and talking about that. And, you know, we share an affinityfor, I guess now, the former snowflake front. Yo.


Speaker 1 [00:09:17] Frank. Suman. Yes.


Speaker 2 [00:09:18] Frank Zupan.Absolutely. Ramp it up, man.


Speaker 1 [00:09:22] Right. So, you know,everyone on our team gets this. Book it up, right. We love this book. We loveFrank. Right? He's good. I got a crush. Right? Right.


Speaker 2 [00:09:33] You do I think I will.I mean, I know I saw him.


Speaker 1 [00:09:37] So you know. So ofcourse we're going to look at there. It is wonderful book. If you're a leaderexecutive you should read that book. Another great books Paradise hard thing ofthe hard thing of hard things Justin and I have to do. What's on your mind? Twoof our top five books. We'll go back and forth on that. That's a great topic togo through. At some point we're able.


Speaker 2 [00:09:58] To.


Speaker 1 [00:09:59] Get through it. We'llcome back to that. We it'll take up the whole hour or so. So naturally, youknow, we looked up well, hey, look, this guy is running a business. So let'stake a look at that business, and, I'll pull up snowflake briefly on thescreen. But what happened is they announced their earnings. They missedmassively. The stock dropped 40%.


Speaker 2 [00:10:21] Yeah. Got crushed Ithink.


Speaker 1 [00:10:23] Like Grim Reaper memecame out on this one. Where am I going to pull this out here. So we looked atthis. You can see I did work on this way back when. And it was an easy pass andhe try to say no quickly. Opportunities. But this is Snowflake's below its IPOprice. The volume. Like, you know, someone got murdered. Call 901 and. 194.Okay, so when you look at that, when I might have to pass on that one.Obviously that earnings has come down quite a bit. And you can just see some ofthe numbers here. you know what. You know, we were looking for so but you knowwhat's interesting is that. Altimeter has a concentrated position in, insnowflake. You know, Tinder is a venture capital fund that did extraordinarilywell. They have snowflake and other companies, their quality venture fund.They've got a podcast. I listened to 2 or 3 of their episodes of new podcastwith Bill early. I've enjoyed it. And you know, Brad is very got a verynegative view of the world as a view, but I enjoy his perspective.